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Posted 20 hours ago

Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

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Factors include: population growth which impacts hours worked and GDP growth which is affected by demographic shifts, education, technology/innovation, automation, and globalization.

It's highly addictive to get core insights on personally relevant topics without repetition or triviality. Widespread risk tolerance—or a high degree of investor comfort with risk—is the greatest harbinger of subsequent market declines. For instance, imagine the real estate market has crashed, and developers are defaulting on debt and being forced to abandon their building projects. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there.

Societies rise and fall, and they speed up and slow down in terms of economic growth relative to each other. In other words, while superior investors — like everyone else — don’t know exactly what the future holds, they do have an above-average understanding of future tendencies. As far as I was concerned, there wasn't enough discussion about central banks and the way they have refused to let cycles take their natural course in recent years.

Confidence to stick with a strategy when it fails to produce the results you expect but enough humility to know your own limitations.There is no such thing as a market that is separate from—and unaffected by—the people who make it up.

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